BACK TO THE FUTURE
SETTING: Rome
DATE: March 411 CE
SCENE: Ruins of the Diocletian Baths
PRINCIPALS: Four habitués gather in the remains of the tepidarium
The foursome is made up of local cognoscenti – self-styled pundits who
gather to exchange impressions of what’s happenings in the imperial
capital. All the normal chatter about the rising cost of housing, what
gladiator is the GOAT [Greatest Of All Time], the
relative merits of the Diocletian thermae and the Antonine thermae on
the sea at Carthage, gossip on the latest political machinations and the
reports from the endless war against the Sassanids in eastern Syria is
eclipsed by the calamitous sack of Rome by
Alaric’s Visigoths. Much of the city is scarred by their orgy of
destruction, their plunder of its riches and the flight of so many
patricians to safer locales. Alaric, now in complete control of the
state apparatus, is moving swiftly to dismantle Rome’s venerable
institutions, and desecrating the city’s famed historic monuments -
replacing them with grander yet artless versions of the rude structures
that mar the landscape of the Visigoth homeland.
MAGNUS It’s still a shock to imagine that just 7 months ago this was
the most magnificent building anywhere in the Empire. Now, even a
routine change of the water is no more than a fading memory. My only
consolation is that it could have been worse; what
if the Huns or the Vandals had done the sacking!
ROMULUS You’re right – the glass is either half full or half empty depending where you focus your attention.
GAUIS Let’s be Stoic realists; the groundwork for this disgraceful
collapse was done years ago – at least as far back as Constantius, that
wild man. Honorius, our last Emperor, was well past his prime – not
that his prime was particularly luminous. Hardly
able to articulate, he almost never appeared in the Senate or at the
games in the Colosseum. The plebeians lost respect for Imperial
authority, and Romans’ mood turned sour.
AUGUSTINE Friends, aren’t you sugarcoating a tragedy that has seen noble
Rome lose its integrity, its honor and above all its independence and
freedom?
GAUIS Yes, but we shouldn’t overlook the positive initiatives that
Alaric has launched. For one thing, he recognizes the folly of trying to
expand the Roman frontier all the way to the Euphrates. History should
have counseled that the Sassanids never would
countenance that; think of the fate that befell Crassus. We’re stuck in
a sand trap there, and the only way out is to cut our losses – end
support for the Armenian and Kurdish insurrections, strike a deal with
King Yazdegerd
and concentrate our resources on mounting domestic problems.
Alaric’s instincts point in the right direction despite the lack of
comprehensive diplomatic strategy. His first step in making contact with
Yazdegerd is a gamechanger. In fact, the word around
the Forum is that the two leaders may meet face-to-face in Palmyra.
Alaric respects Yazdegerd as a tough leader with whom he can do
business. Moreover, Yazdegerd’s definitive ending of persecution of
Christians within the Sassanid empire eases any pressure
from his Arian base over this stunning policy reversal.
ROMULUS A definite improvement over the dumb obstinacy of the Honorius crowd
AUGUSTINE The truth is that for too long Rome has overlooked the threat
to our strategic dominance of an emerging tacit alliance between Persia
and the Huns. Their clear target is the Roman Empire – each for its own
reasons. Just look at the latest trade statistics.
The exchange of steppe horses from Central Asia for metallurgical
technology from the Sassanids has increased 4-fold. Our smart move would
be to drive a wedge between Persia and the Huns. Reaching a
modus vivendi with Persia follows logically from analysis of the emerging correlation of forces.
MAGNUS What do you guys think about yesterday’s announcement that Alaric
is placing 35% tariffs on grain imports from Egypt and Carthage? Isn’t
that going to have far-reaching repercussions for the entire
Mediterranean basin economic system? Above all, hasn't
Rome depended on that grain to feed the plebeians, fulfilling
our longstanding commitment to provide cheap bread for all in exchange
for unqualified loyalty to the Emperor? After all, the
frumentatio goes back to the days of the Republic. The
Bread & Circuses strategy has kept Rome peaceful and unified for
centuries. I’m not sure that putting the entire burden on circuses is
tenable – especially in light of the declining quality
of the games. They’re not at all what they used to be – over
commercialized.
GAIUS It is a bit of a gamble, but I can see where Alaric is coming
from. Sometimes, you have to accept short term pain for long term gain.
Peninsular agriculture has been languishing for generations. It badly
needs the kind of infrastructure investment that
tariff revenues could pay for. We must do something to revive it;
otherwise, we run the risk of becoming vulnerable to political discord
in supplier provinces that could disrupt deliveries.
MAGNUS Why, though, impose 10% tariffs on imports from Gaul and 15% on
Lusitania? And slapping a 50% tariff on Tuareg exports of salt? That’s
the mainstay of their economy – poor devils.
ROMULUS Fairness and equity; you have to go with what the analytics tell you
GIAUS Alaric and his advisers are not as dim-witted as they sound – they
must have other national security concerns on their minds
AUGUSTINE I want to add that a touch of austerity might be just the
right thing to stiffen the moral fiber of Romans. Face it, we had become
pretty soft – everybody looking for handouts, a bloated bureaucracy to
serve them, and bringing in hordes of barbarian
immigrants to do the jobs that Romans now shirk. Crime, an epidemic of
opium addiction and a drain on the Treasury is the result.
GAIUS Time to Make Rome Great Again?
MAGNUS Damn! This water is getting cold. I knew that the baths would
suffer when they summarily deported the maintenance guys back to DACIA!
Postscript
In 476 Rome breathed its last – a degraded, impoverished Rome. Europe’s 600-year Dark Ages followed